I am trying to model some data using a Bayesian logistic regression model. The data are monthly observations of a binary outcome event across multiple households. So I have about 400 households that were observed for 48 months and each month the outcome of the binary event was recorded (1/0). As a first step I tried to model the probability of the event using a Bayesian logistic regression model with just a random intercept for the household and the month. I used RJags to estimate the posterior probabilities and I am not having any success getting the chains to converge. I wonder if I am not specifying the model correctly?
Here is my model specification
modelString = "model {
### MODEL
for (n in 1:N){
delta[n] ~ dnorm(Mu_d, Tau_d)
}
for(t in 1:tt){
alpha[t] ~ dnorm(Nu_a, Tau_a)
}
for ( n in 1:N ) {
for (t in 1:tt){
logit(theta[n,t]) <- alpha [t] + delta [n]
y[n,t]~ dbern(theta[n,t])
Mu_d ~ dnorm(0,0.01)
Tau_d <- 1 / (sd_d * sd_d)
sd_d ~ dt(0,1,1)T(0,) ## Specify a half-Cauchy prior
Nu_a ~ dnorm(0,0.01)
Tau_a <- 1 / (sd_a * sd_a)
sd_a ~ dt(0,1,1)T(0,) ## Specify a half-Cauchy prior
}"
The input data (ins) is a matrix with households along rows and months along columns.
Would appreciate your insights.
Thanks!

