I'm trying to estimate the percentage of changes in programming languages and natural languages over a 10-year period. I would like to know if my estimations are reasonable and if there are any reliable sources or studies on this topic.
- Guessing the Percentage of Changes in Programming Languages:
For example, let's consider Java. I believe that the percentage of command changes or updates in Java over a 10-year period is likely to be less than 30%. However, I understand that providing an exact percentage is challenging. Considering major version updates (e.g., Java 8, Java 11, Java 14) that introduce new features, syntax improvements, and libraries, it seems reasonable to estimate that a significant portion of commands or language features may undergo changes or additions. Based on the adoption rate of new language versions and the need for backward compatibility, I would estimate a range of 20% to 50% for significant changes or additions to commands or language features. I would appreciate any insights or references to studies that support or validate these estimations.
- Guessing the Percentage of Changes in Natural Languages:
Turning to natural languages, I believe that the percentage of words that significantly change or become obsolete in English over a 10-year period is likely to be under 1%. While there may be shifts in language conventions, slang, idiomatic expressions, and the adoption of new words or phrases, these changes usually occur gradually and do not result in a high percentage of overall language transformation within a decade. I would welcome any additional information or research that supports or challenges this estimation.
In summary, I'm seeking feedback on the estimated percentages of changes in programming and natural languages over a 10-year period. Additionally, I believe this discussion can highlight the faster pace of changes in programming languages compared to natural languages and the potential usefulness of having knowledge of older programming languages.
Entropy Rate Estimates for Natural Language—A New Extrapolation of Compressed Large-Scale Corpora